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Strategies & Market Trends : Strong Industry Groups - Strong Stocks

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject	9/14/2001 12:42:04 AM
From: Sam Raven	of 1567

Today is an international day of mourning. We extent our deepest sympathy to our friends and associates in New York and Washington DC. I trust you all can take pride in that across this country there is an outpouring of support and condolences. Wyoming, where is it rare to see a line of people for any reason, has folks willing to wait for hours to give blood. Places taking contributions can't seem to find containers large enough to hold all the funds. The markets will remain closed Friday. Below is some of the economic news from our weekly and daily commentary. Thursday had a jump in the weekly jobless claims to 431K. And saw a University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey drop to 83.6. This was a sharp drop to a new low for the index. This number does not include Tuesday, so the number could have been even much lower. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August is released at 8:30 AM ET, and is expected to have an increase of 0.1% after falling a surprise 0.9% in July. The core rate was up 0.2% and it is expected to settle back to 0.1%. However, at this point in the cycle I don’t expect the PPI to have much of an impact. Also out today is the Retail Sales for August. This may have more influence on the market since sentiment is playing an increasingly larger role. Like I mentioned last week, the fear is that decrease in payroll employment will affect retail sales and housing, the two economic strengths. Now that we actually saw that drop in payrolls of over 100 thousand, I expect the focus will be on retail sales. Economists expect to see an increase of 0.3%, I’d anticipate a surprise on the low side. The last number of significance is Industrial Production for August. Economists are expecting to see the 11th consecutive down month. But this time we have the makings of an upside surprise. In its earnings release, Oracle (ORCL), beat reduced expectations by 1 cent. Cisco Systems (CSCO) has announced a stock buy back of 3 billion dollars over the next 2 years. John Chambers remarked, "We have tremendous confidence in the financial systems of our country, in our industry and in our market-leading position both today and into the future. We believe that this stock repurchase program is in the best interests of our shareholders."

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