hey buddy, taking into consideration the enormous amount of value out there, I know you may have forgotten your "to-buy" list in your haste to get your favorite share certificates before the printer's ink ran out. Lucky for us someone on CFZ was kind enough to compile it for you again, here t'is, can you recommend overweighting anywhere?
From: American Spirit Sunday, Mar 5, 2000 10:41 PM
View Replies (6) | Respond to of 54901
Tech values - having lost in retail I'm back to techs.
And of course value. My personality forbids me buying any stock that's up more than 200% this year as many of the favorites on this thread are. Therefore, in the field of fibre-optics I like LU (especially on any dip from here), in the heavens a very cheap LOR (only 3 bill market cap now), ATHM at new recent bottom, UIS below 29 certainly, IBM, WCOM, T, CPQ on any dips. ESHR I sold at 25 and bought back cheap at 14 (if only they were all like that). FATB, CORL, BSX all cheap here and going places. CPWR also very cheap. PSFT under 20 great. CMGI, AOL and ELNK on any dips. So I enter the new week hoping for a few dips in these favorites which are already good buys. Yes American Spirit is back, raped by retail but surviving to fight this new day.
Sincere apologies to anyone who lost money on Bebe or Anf by taking my advice, though when I first recommended them they did spurt up for a few days. Only I like many others decided to hold. Oh well. They're very cheap now for anyone who's interested but I can't even go there. Ouch.
The names above I feel provide safety as well as probable modest gains at least near term. Most of them quite oversold and in exciting sectors inter-related to the hottest ones. Drug stocks are also compelling buys here though I'll probably wait on them. This may be the bottom but I'd rather play these type tech values for now.
Message 13436913
From: American Spirit Sunday, Apr 16, 2000 2:01 AM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 81777
Of course the market's changing. It just did. We just crashed. Let me give you a few examples. CIEN from 210 to 90. CMGI from 200 to 52. ETYS from 80 to 5. Get the drift? We're already corrected on the most speculative stocks. The market has also balanced itself Dow Vs. Naz. Now we can go forward on real valuations which I appreciate being a value investors myself, tech value that is. Right now I LOVE UIS at 20, COMS at 40, IBM at 105, CPQ at 24, CMGI at 50, WCOm at 38, etc. etc. Can't go wrong here. Lucky if you even get these prices again. I bought last thing Friday to make saure I got these ridiculous prices. All of these companies are rock solid. If you want more spec ESHR at 6, LOR at 8, FATB at 6. Jeez loueeze are these winners cheap. The buying op of the year. I also like retailers here. Very very cheap. ANF at 12? - This has got to turn around - and fast.
Message 13840640
From: American Spirit Wednesday, Jun 7, 2000 12:03 AM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 81777
Maybe we got a little ahead of ourselves but I'd buy into any sell-off this week IMHO without much anxiety. I've been scanning new and threads and haven't seen any concrete reasons for any prolonged downdraft. Most of the bears sound irrational to me.
On the contrary I see at least a modest summer rally in mid-course with at least 10% to go. With no reason for pessimism the attractive prices which already started appearing end of day today (days of gains erased in an hour) should attract significant buying by later tomorrow. Friday's numbers ought to make the bulls more daring unless Greenspan himself wants to squash it we'll go higher, at least most sectors will. Therefore a renewed rally could start Thursday after Wednesday stabilizes the action.
I know inflation is a concern but higher oils prices haven't had the affect yet that they've had in past decades. Maybe that's because the "new economy" doesn't run on oil. Hell I hardly even need to leave my house to run two companies. If it weren't for errands and the occasional meeting I'd hardly leave at all.
Looking at sectors, I see no reason for financials or retailers to go any lower, ditto major telcos, computers, drugs, foods, autos, chemicals, oils, internets, cyclicals, etc. Tech small caps already fell back to last week's levels late in the day. Suddenly they're bargains again. In other words we may have already had a very fast mini-correction which might be all we need. A profit-taking drop, that's all. And the same ones who sold will buy back in at slightly lower levels. Maybe creating a trading range but maybe breaking out of it Friday and next week.
All in all not much time to go short. And since shorts tend to attack the best stocks which have just flown up it's particularly dangerous for them. Or bulls buying high-fliers after they've rallied hard. Same logic. Either way I'd scalp 10% gains and no more to be safe.
I see any dip as healthy profit-taking to set higher lows and then higher highs as we rally off them into July. Possibly Naz 4000 by Friday. If we don't make it then we will soon. Maybe even 4300. I don't expect 5000 again until winter. Today was not the peak of the rally. It was just a pit-stop to take a breather and change the tires and oil.
We may have a lot of yo-yo whipsaw action as bears and bulls collide and neither side wins for a few days.
Obviously stockpicking is very important as not all picks will win or lose. Still a lot of oversold stocks out there, though some overbought ones too. But not as many as before 2pm today. Examples (SUNW down to 83 from 88, Intel down below 130, QCOM back to 67, CSCO at 62 etc.) Small caps got hit even harder. Some 25% drops at the end of the day wiping out a whole week's gains.
Bottomline, though we can expect regular profit-taking and short attacks we're still in a summer rally unless something or someone (Greenspan) throws cold water on the market. From what I've been reading lately I wouldn't expect that to happen. But I admit it could. Anything anytime could happen as we all know.
However, the only way I think shorts can make money is attacking at the peak of optimism. Just like going long at the peak of pessimism (like ten days ago). I see so many shorts attacking great stocks which haven't even made their move yet. That to me looks suicidal. That to me is a bullish sign.
I don't hear anyone expecting us to take out highs of the year this summer. Bulls have modest expectations now. That to me is also bullish. Therefore back to my prediction of a general 10% rise in the coming weeks. After that I won't be holding through late July-August. But election season could get interesting. I'll be fully invested again by October.
But until then there's pretty good money to made. Mainly on the long side, but on the short side too. Everyone has their strategy and takes their risks. I post this only because as usual I'm reading too much pessimism after the fact. It is even possiable that after a 15 minute sell-off in the morning we start rallying again and the shorts lose again. That can be the way it is betting against a rally in the middle of it.
Message 14413135
From: American Spirit Tuesday, Sep 19, 2000 5:39 PM
View Replies (4) | Respond to of 54901
I'm working in Europe not vacationing (okay a little fun on the side). Anyway I have been disgusted by this sell-off (the extent of it). I understand okay maybe oil worries, but those are already overblown. Now I believe we've had our October sell-off in September just like we've had everything early this year. So I forsee more rallying up from the depths. All of my tech value stocks are still at or near their lows. My portfolio inched up today but it was nothing. Some even went down. WCOM, IFMX, T. Can you believe that? Obviously a lot more money needs to come into this market and it will soon. Today's turnaround was just the beginning.
Some outrageous bargains out there. Buy them cheap before the big boys start manipulating them upwards again. LU for instance. You know that should at least be a $50 stock. At least. It blows away some of the smaller high-fliers in terms of valuation. All the telcos a steal now. Beaten down software, some retailers, even some boring old industry stocks, all cheap-cheap and certainly going a lot higher.
I'm mad as hell and I'm holding!
Message 14942866
From: American Spirit Monday, Dec 4, 2000 5:19 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 120520
The post-election rally will start slow then speed up and climax in the next week or so. Buy techs and hold 'em long IMHO. Get out of short positions fast. Such great bargains now INTC, AAPL, IBM, NOVL, WCOM, FON, LU on and on.
Message 15301613
From: American Spirit Monday, Feb 5, 2001 4:53 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 54901
Not much of a tech sell-off today. Lost only $250 and grabbed SUNW, CSCO and CMTN at or almost at their bottoms. Smart shorts have got to be feeling over-extended now. Hard to squeeze water out of the stones which are the very best techs and telcos already down 50-95%. Today's low ought to hold and this should be a good week ahead. CSCO report very important but at CSCO's current price all the disappointments have got to be priced in already.
Message 15429167
From: American Spirit Wednesday, Feb 28, 2001 3:05 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 48221
Almost all techs are great buys now if you're positioning yourself for a recovery rally or a long-term double. Throw a dart at the board. Sure ORCL at 19 if you can get it. Ought to be about rock bottom.
Bought some EMC at 39. Who woulda thunk it? LSI at 16.40, ERICY at 8.25. These kind of prices are amazing. Now all we need is an excuse to rally.
Message 15644367
From: American Spirit Tuesday, Apr 10, 2001 7:58 PM
View Replies (5) | Respond to of 35347
Yep, buy the dips (still waiting this week) and hold on. Shorting days are just about finished.
Message 15702909
From: American Spirit Sunday, Apr 22, 2001 11:45 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 81778
Short Term Forecast: Don't forget a rate cut in three weeks. I say we rally bumpily right through it but that we do it in tiers. The first tier move is almost complete. The second tier is halfway along. The third tier has barely begun and the fourth tier is defensive tech value stocks like Baby Bells and the last is purely defensive stocks like energy.
I am buying tech dogs which haven't moved and big telcos which haven't moved. Anything tech which hasn't rallied yet is almost a sure thing to follow now. That's the way it was in early January and this rally is stronger. Possible we could get ahead of ourselves so profit-taking can be in order on any given day but it will be met by bargain buying.
Until May 15th at least I think we're fine on the long side and any zealous short will have to be very lucky with his picks and quick to cover to survive. Therefore I'd buy into bad news drops and any concentrated shorting action for the next three weeks, like with ERICY on bad news day last week when it popped back 30% from its daily low. That would have been a great day trade.
Long term (by winter) I see almost all tech stocks doubling from their recent lows. The small companies will multiply 2-4 tiems. The biggest will only get 50% or so but they will average a double as a group. Many of them already have done this or are halfway there so I think my guess is conservative. By fourth quarter the recovery will be clear and low rates will be doing their magic. By then shorts will be history.
Message 15741519
From: American Spirit Tuesday, May 1, 2001 8:27 PM
Respond to of 13548
Priceline surprising is very-very bullish. Much fear and doubt about buying value dogs with lotsa cash ought to go out the window now. Not exactly blue chips but I like SCNT and AETH as cash dogs close to the bottom. And LOR as my asset dog near the bottom. Today's dip on SCNT might be a gift. Can't find a better one to add in the morning. But who knows how they'll open. Maybe on a gap-up.
I still have a mental block against e-commerce so this is as close as I'll get to it. RRRR and Stamps-Com are others with lotsa cash but they sound a little corny to me. rare medium sounds like a steak and who needs stamps on-line when the post office also provides the service?
We have a 10 day window to rally here before the Fed cut. Any short who dives in front of the herd will be trampled. Make the most of it. For big boys which haven't rallied yet I like WCOM and HWP. AAPL and PALM have moved a bit but I still like them. Also some of them in your above list.
PS - If three are any shorts on this board take your complaints to Ban American Spirit thread. It's new and exciting. |
