Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (9139)	9/14/2001 12:11:11 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Hard to say, Jay...lot's of volatility and gnashing of teeth on all sides, I suspect. I'm certainly not going to try and trade it. As a very wild guess, I'd say we gap down in the 3-5% range based on redemptions, then a bounce. But that scenario is heavily favored, meaning it probably won't occur. I think a lot will depend on what sort of military/anti-terrorist intervention is proposed, but we may not get that over the weekend. Mobilization of the reserves is ominous in that regard. I'm also concerned that follow-on attacks might occur, and how the market would react to that. Finally, I think the derivative wild card is now in play based on the horrendous performance of third world markets this week. An unintended consequence of propping up the US markets could be to widen risk spreads and blow out some very major derivative players a la LTCM. So much that is unknown. We DO live in interesting times. Regards Patron

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