From the Russian Journal:
Russian-US cooperation
may be limited
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's
magnanimous offer to assist
Washington in rooting out
terrorism after this week's U.S.
calamities belies considerable
differences in outlook which
analysts say could keep
cooperation limited.
President Vladimir Putin made
the offer within hours of the
attacks on New York and
Washington, saying they
provided further proof of the need
to pool efforts against terrorists.
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov
appeared even to endorse the notion of a U.S. riposte, saying: "In the fight
against terrorism, all possible means are to be used, from political means and if
necessary the use of force."
The United States made it clear that it wanted Moscow involved in working out
an international response, with Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage
travelling to Moscow next week to discuss cooperation in dealing with
Afghanistan.
But beyond deep mistrust of Afghanistan's hardline Muslim Taliban leadership,
home to Osama bin Laden, chief U.S. suspect in the attacks, the two sides
may find little common ground.
"If there is to be any cooperation with Russia, it is most likely to be low-key in
nature," said independent defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer.
"The Americans would surely see a risk of information going into the wrong
hands. And that means they will almost certainly act alone or rely on only their
closest allies, like Britain."
RUSSIAN LINKS WITH IRAN, IRAQ COULD GET IN THE WAY
Newly revived Russian interest by Putin's administration in Soviet-era allies like
Iran, Iraq and Syria also put a brake on any move to closer joint action,
Felgenhauer said.
"Russia wants to sell billions of dollars of military equipment to these countries,
which would be disapproved by the United States. And Russia would almost
certainly reject any call to halt cooperation with Iraq," he said.
"It is only on Afghanistan and the Taliban that everyone agrees."
Differences with Washington in recent months have focused on U.S. plans to
proceed with a missile defence system directed against "rogue states" which
include Iran and Iraq.
The latest talks on the issue, including U.S. resolve to abandon the 1972
Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, were postponed after the attacks and will now take
place in Moscow next week.
With Moscow media speculating that agreement could be reached on staging
attacks from ex-Soviet Central Asia, Russian officials hastened to make public
the limits they saw to cooperation.
Armed forces' chief of staff Anatoly Kvashnin said Moscow was unlikely to join
in retaliatory strikes as the U.S. armed forces were "powerful enough to handle
the task by themselves".
Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said he saw no basis "for even hypothetical
assumptions" that strikes could be launched from Central Asia - the area
Russia says is most at risk from the influence of Muslim fundamentalism.
CHECHNYA CAMPAIGN ALSO A FACTOR
Moscow's campaign in Chechnya is another mitigating factor - though Putin's
reference to Russia understanding terrorism better than anyone was certainly
an allusion to arguments that separatists there are backed by a "terrorist
international".
Though Western accusations of "disproportionate use of force" by Russian
troops in Chechnya have died down in recent months, the issue remains an
irritant.
"In exchange (for cooperation), Russia might expect the West to be more
understanding in its attitude towards events in Chechnya," said Boris
Makarenko, deputy director of Centre for Political Technologies.
"Russia would also need assurances that this is not merely an agreement of
convenience but that it is to be treated as an equal with the West."
Analysts also said that U.S. strategists should not forget sensitivities in view of
recent Soviet and Russian history.
A decade after the fall of communism, many Russian politicians now see little
benefit gained from Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev's decision to join the
U.S.-led coalition against Iraq in response to Baghdad's 1990 invasion of
Kuwait.
And Russia remains deeply scarred by the 13,000 dead from its own 10-year
intervention in Afghanistan in support of a leftist government battling
U.S.-backed guerrillas.
"If we are talking about an attack on Afghanistan, you must understand that
Russia is fed up to the teeth with problems in Afghanistan. The so-called
Afghan syndrome of the 1980s is still very much with us," said Grigory
Bondarevsky, consultant to the Institute of Eastern Studies in Moscow.
"Russia, of course, clearly has a key interest in all this. It was the first to point
to the involvement of international terrorism in Chechnya and the first to warn of
the danger of fundamentalism in Central Asia."
fred |
