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AMZN 220.66+1.6%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (131268)9/15/2001 12:48:33 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
"you provided no facts as to why the world economy will slow further due to this ongoing problem" I gave you the example of all travel-related expenditures which are likely to decline by $10 to $20 billion per month in coming months -- there is no way of knowing how long that will continue. It could be a week, a month, three months a year -- nobody knows. The airlines lobbied Congress and got $15 billion in emergency aid by arguing that without help they would all be bankrupt in three months. I think this is evidence of a significant slowdown. In that one cluster of industries alone it is a reduction of expenditures at an annual run-rate of $120 to $240 billion per year.

Our limited experience with this kind of situation is that the impact is felt for a year or two -- but there are so many factors to consider that it makes any projection very uncertain. Another hijacking or air incident would obviously be devastating. The beginnings of a response by the USA will cause people to become more cautious --and there must be a response. Ground troops in Iraq, for example, might produce a sense of caution that would further reduce travel and related expenditures. An outbreak of a new type of threat would also be very harmful -- biological warfare being the most difficult to respond to in a meaningful way. But whatever happens next, history and logic point to a slowdown in many important areas of our economy. I have simply pointed out the most obvious one -- travel-related industries.
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