RE: "avoid public areas if at all possible"
Tim, your post is completely off base, unfounded, and statistically illogical.
Study history and you will learn that the largest stock market drop due to any war (including WW1, WW2, Desert Storm) was at most around 10%. There is a Wall Street Article on this - I suggest you get a hold of the article and read it twice.
People are getting on with their lives after this horrible disaster.
Every single business person, colleague, friend or contact that I know that I have talked to over this event (which goes very, very wide and very far), will be holding their stock.
History has also shown that acts of war have generated extensive business activities which have fueled the economy, not hindered it. Applying $40B towards the combat of war (the amount congress has approved), I believe is equivalent to an entire's quarter worth of VC funding last year. That's going to pump activiity into the economy that will help counter.
As far as consumer purchasing and consumer confidence. The figures show that we are on the order of 1993, which was the same year this country was coming out of a recession.
I have friends and contacts that worked in the various buildings around WTC (including in WTC), that are geared up to get back to business.
Enough of history. Let's take a look at me, as a sample data point.
I am going to the mall today to shop. Nothing can stop the fact that I need socks. While I am there, if I see one long-sleeve shirt that provides warmth during the more chilly weather we have these days, I'll buy one.
I am not selling any stock on Monday.
I will be buying CSCO in my 401k plan on Monday.
In the absolute worse case, I will be writing covered calls, which means I will be generating premiums to purchase more and more INTC.
For prudent business & financial reasons, not for patriotic reasons (though I am very happy my goal aligns with patriotism), I will be purchasing stocks. Warren Buffett: "buy when the mood is pessimistic, not when the mood is optimistic."
I intend to profit in the long-term from folks that think like you. I am completely and absolutely confident that my stock performance growth will be higher than yours in 3 years time, as long as I don't sell a single stock. I think there are many other people that are thinking like this (holding and buying more is a good idea), and I think there are many businesses that will buy back their shares to take advantage of this. The trick will be, "at what time should a person or company buy on Monday." History has shown, the first day should have a big drop, followed by recovery on the order of a few days to a few months, probably a year at most.
The SEC is ordering the trades so all the Sells occur first at the open. This is good because it will create an artificial drop regardless of any potential real drop. Buyers can move in afterwards on Monday.
Regards,
Amy J |
