TG,
I am definitely for the Bilow approach of total commitment to total victory.
A half measure that doesn't achieve any objective is seen as defeat, so the attacks by cruise missiles of some targets (that were missed) and attack on the pharmaceutical factory in Sudan were not only PR, intelligence and military failures, but also played into the hand of Bin Laden. We made him look more important than he is, which in turn helped his recruitment and fundraising.
My guess is that right now, he is as high as he will ever get. One thing I worry about is that he will somehow sneak across the border from Afganistan to Iran, which would complicate the whole situation greatly.
In a way, him being in Afganistan makes the situation of the US very appealing. Tha Taliban regime is just so appalling that no one will weep if we wipe them out. If we get Bin Laden in process, it will consitute a total victory.
If he gets away, and we wipe out Taliban, it would still be a minor victory. Afganistan seems to be sort of a legend now. Neither British nor Soviet empire was able to conquer it, and if we now walk in and crush badly weakened divided force, we will regain all of the credibility that was lost recently and than some.
If Bin Laden gets away to hide in another countries, these countries will be fearful of the same fate that will meet Taliban, and their resolve to support terrorism may weaken.
Joe |
