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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: FaultLine who wrote (112)9/16/2001 8:41:02 PM
From: mightylakers  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
I have been trying to see through what may happen in the next few months, however I can't. It looks like there are way too many questions than answers at this stage.

The very first variable, the most important one is Pakistan. Don't be fooled by the immediate support from the Pakistan government. We need a little time to see how strong the new marriage will be. The coalition, at current time, is formed because of the "shock effect", nobody, in their right mind, would openly "oppose" the war against terrorists right now. Serving up the lip service might be the best thing they can do. However, it is how the war is carried out matters. We will surely see the murmuring getting louder as time moves on.

Another thing is that how long and how well the Pakistani government can keep its Muslin population under control. I'm sure the government is already in the hot seat right now, and it may getting hotter for the time being. So if Pakistan people start to get upset and worrying about U.S. getting too much control over their country then things won't be pretty.

So it is very important for Bush and his team to show more respect to their newly found partner and consolidate the shaky ground they start with. One very sensitive thing is not to use India to exert the pressure, that will screw up the whole thing. Another thing can make things go bad is heavy civilian casualties. I think everybody knows how the world, esp. the Pakistani will react if that happens.

If US-Pakistan relation going down then the war will be in great dangerous of getting escalated.
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