U.S.
Faces Islamic Radical Network
2100 GMT, 010916
Summary
This week's
terrorist attacks demonstrate clearly for
the first time the existence
of a multi-national, global
network of Islamic radicals and their
sympathizers. The
United States is gearing up for war against an enemy
that may span half the globe and is comprised of
thousands individuals
and different organizations.
Analysis
The United States has declared
war on international
terrorism. In his weekly radio address Sept. 15
U.S.
President George W. Bush warned Americans to brace
themselves for
"a conflict without battlefields or
beachheads," and called on U.S.
military personnel to
get ready for battle. The president earlier met
with his
top security advisors at Camp David in order to hammer
out a
U.S. military response to the Sept. 11 terrorist
attacks on the United
States.
Identifying the enemy, however, will be neither simple
nor
straightforward. A number of officials including
U.S. Secretary of State
Colin Powell have named Saudi
exile Osama bin Laden as the chief
suspect. But evidence
suggests that while his umbrella organization
Al-Qaida
was involved at some point, bin Laden himself isn't
likely the
mastermind behind the attacks. The skill and
scope of the operation
indicates that more than one base
of support was necessary.
The
operational resources required to pull off this
week's attacks indicate the
existence of a much larger
threat, a multi-national radical Islamic
network with
operatives and sympathizers all across the globe. Such a
network likely connects a variety of Islamic radical and
terrorist groups.
Understanding this is the key to Washington's
warfighting strategy.
In aiming to dismantle the
infrastructure supporting terrorist groups,
the United
States will now begin focusing efforts on identifying
members and supporters of this global network. Bin Laden
and Al-Qaida will
likely be only the first targets.
As the world's most notorious
terrorist leader bin Laden
has provided training, logistics and support to a
host
of Islamic radicals including Algerian, Egyptian,
Jordanian,
Pakistani, Sudanese, Syrian and Yemeni
nationals. His training camps in
Afghanistan provide a
basis for learning the tools and techniques of
terrorism. In a way bin Laden could be thought of as the
president of a
university devoted to the education of
radical Islamic terrorists.
But taking out bin Laden won't end the threat of more
terrorist attacks
against the United States, since logic
dictates that Al-Qaida could
not have been the only
organization involved in the Sept. 11
strikes.
Like any business venture, no one group would be able to
supply all the
resources. Instead, various aspects of
the operation would be farmed
out to different groups or
individuals within the network. Al-Qaida as
an umbrella
organization is but one group within a network of
radical
Islamic organizations that stretches from Cairo
to Manila, from Kabul
to Algiers.
The sheer scope and skill with which the operations were
carried out required several levels of planning,
organizing,
intelligence and operational experience and
capabilities.
The masterminds
behind this week's operation began
forming their attack plan years ago.
They then needed to
locate funding and likely turned to sympathetic
financiers who could arrange for aid from even more
sympathetic donors.
The planners also set up separate
departments with directors to handle
counterintelligence, logistics, training, diplomatic
covers and
passports, finances and recruitment. At the
same time, security is
maintained by isolating each
department from the others so that the
organization is
not compromised.
Each division required support from a variety
of
sources, which neither bin Laden nor his network could
provide. In
fact, to say bin Laden himself masterminded
the assault overlooks some
important limitations under
which he is currently operating.
For one
he is trapped in Afghanistan and is limited in
what he can do. The
Saudi dissident cannot even make
phone calls and has had to resort to
courier services in
order to communicate with his associates.
For
years, the United States tracked communications in
country and listened in
on his phone conversations made
over the Immarsat-3 satellite
telephone network.
Directing an operation like the one that took place
Sept.
11 would require flexible management that could
adapt to a variety of
situations, necessitating quick
and reliable means of
communication.
Even financing the operation would have required
resources beyond bin
Laden and Al-Qaida's ability.
According to U.S. officials quoted by
United Press
International, Washington had bin Laden's financial and
operational networks almost "completely mapped" out in
detail by
mid-1997.
This suggest that bin Laden's finances have been at most
severely
limited and at least under constant
surveillance. It would have been
impossible for his
bankers to wire money to operatives in the United
States
without tipping off U.S. intelligence agencies. Clearly,
bin
Laden could not have financed this week's operation
alone.
Al-Qaida
could have easily provided training and perhaps
even recruits. But there
are several other organizations
that could also be tapped for
intelligence, logistical
assistance, operational planning and financing. For
example, the Egyptian group al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya
orchestrated the
bombing of the World Trade Center in
1993 and has experience operating
in the United States.
It also has links to Egyptian intelligence and
business
leaders who travel frequently and could provide
information
on airline security standards in the United
States.
Another example
can be seen in the bombing of the USS
Cole in Yemen last October. The
group blamed for that
attack has been linked to bin Laden, but there is
no
evidence that it acted directly under his command. That
group,
like the recent attackers, employed crude tactics
and weapons in a
sophisticated manner to cause massive
damage. It managed to severely damage
a U.S. destroyer,
not to mention the U.S. sense of dominance, with a
rubber inflatable boat.
Indeed, there are hundreds of radical Islamic
organizations operating around the world, all individual
and distinct
from each other, that could have provided
support. Although in the
past a majority focused on
local issues and did not operate beyond their
national
borders, a new picture is now emerging.
This picture is one
of a global network tying all
Islamic groups together in a loose
coalition. Like the
Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, this network is comprised
of organizations and sympathetic individuals from all
over the Muslim
world, including financiers and aid
donors, government officials and
diplomats, former and
possibly current military officers, intelligence
agents,
former and current guerrilla and militant groups,
information
technology specialists and operational
commanders and their
lieutenants.
It is then quite possible that the group that
masterminded the
Sept. 11 terror attacks is comprised of
a collection of individuals from
several different
countries. Indeed, the FBI's list of suspects reads
like
a student roster from the renowned Al-Ahzar University
in Cairo.
The operatives who carried out the attack came
from countries across
the Middle East, including
possibly Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and
the United
Arab Emirates. There was no local issue tying them all
together.
The United States thinks it is going to war with bin
Laden,
Al-Qaida or the unnamed group directly
responsible for this week's
attacks. But taking down the
infrastructure supporting these groups will
require the
U.S. to identify and dismantle the larger, global
network.
That, like dismantling the drug trafficking
networks in Latin America,
West Africa or Europe, will
be a monumental
task.
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