Turning odds in your favor-essence of strategy- MSFT INTC IBM SUNW CA CSCO HWP COMS ASND all trades needs analysis of odds.
Subject: "IDEA OF THE DAY"-Trading in&out for profits.
To: +adg (1024 )
From: +IQBAL LATIF Jun 22 1997 8:20AM EST
Reply #1026 of 1026
adg- please also note that I am going short if this SOXx fails 311 and breaks 301, I am going to keep tight stop profits to cover at 296, as I think about potential bouncing points, before COMs earnings for tomorrow I think IBM and INTC statements on meeting numbers and low p/e's should help the market open higher, but one should not be complacent in waiting for upside only, here on this thread I have so far equal recommendation on shorting. I never recommend shorting stock the most bearish of my recommendation would be to sell a call 10% out and buy a put 5% from the money. This is for me a better strategy than straight shorting.
I also think networking are going to make a run next week and therefore going long COMs pre-earnings.
I reiterate that as market touches new highs it is imperative to be disciplined about long and short strategies, a turn over in trend shoud be picked up and long positions be ideally squared, this market you are swimming with the sharks and the best way is to time your moves. Every one will tell you that this timing is not possible however if you know and identify possible trouble spots you are going to make it 70 times out of 100. We are in the business of turning odds in our favor, when you toss odds are that 50/50 it will be either heads or tails, in case of a slightly loaded coin these odds turn in your favor, my studies and recommendations spin around turning market efficient info to best use, e.g. I have identified during this weekend two pieces of news I feel are quite bullish the IBM and low INTC for me a CEO lamenting about low P?E pretty well knows the strength and will employ buy backs at certain levels, so I interpret that on weakness one should go long, now probably charts are quite between 311.8 and 310 the triger ponts where my strategy comes into play but I know that barring surprises I will go long and cover my shorts with very tight limits, I can understand most of you visiting this thread are learning the trade and are full time employs but my intentions are to share the little I have, get thoroughly critcised and go back to my lone money making activity. It is these turning odds that interest me and consumes most of my thoughts. I want to go in the market with somekind of favorable odds 70/30 is what I like, so far it has been 89/11.
It is to my utter surprise that I am considered as someone 'who can' predict but I have been putting up this strategy for last few years and have found it to my satisfaction, I thought the 'gurus' will eat me alive for preaching such an unconventional gospel, to be honest some mail sometime entirely surprises me as ( it helps me to work harder since if it works I try to clarify my thought process to friends who like to educate me). I just put my thoughts and it makes some money for me that's the only reason to share with every one, I think if it works for me it should work for every one, the only problem is concentration and time to follow. |
