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Opposition to Taliban May Unite Iran and U.S.
2300 GMT, 010917
Summary
Tehran has condemned the Sept. 11 terrorist attack
on the United States and may participate in a
U.S.-led multinational campaign against terrorism.
But cooperation between the two nations will be
challenging, and divisions within Iran will undercut
Washington's ability to trust the government.
However, Tehran's opposition to Afghanistan's ruling
Taliban regime may provide a foundation for
coordinated efforts.
Analysis
The United States, in its effort to form a multinational
coalition to fight terrorism, is now considering
accepting help from Iran. Washington wants to
secure support for any U.S. retaliation against
Afghanistan for harboring Osama bin Laden, a prime
suspect in the Sept. 11 attacks, Agence
France-Press reported Sept. 17. U.S. Secretary of
State Colin Powell has also said cooperation with
Iran is worth exploring.
Public engagement remains out of the question for
the short- to mid-term because Iran and the United
States have no diplomatic relations and Iran is still
listed as a state sponsor of terrorism. But Iran has
several reasons to want the Taliban ousted as
Afghanistan's ruling government, and its opposition to
the regime may provide the key for some limited
coordination between Tehran and Washington.
Along with help from Pakistan, Iran's support could
provide a strategic advantage for any U.S. offensive
against Afghanistan. Washington knows this and is
now hoping to find a way to build some degree of
cooperation. Back-channel negotiations are likely
underway. Iran's political leaders, however, are
starkly divided about the prospect of working with the
United States to launch assaults against another
Muslim country.
Iran: Collapse of a
Revolution
Tensions in Iran are rising as
presidential elections near.
Incumbent President
Mohammad Khatami, favored
to win, has yet to declare his
candidacy. But no other
candidate has shown the
ability to maintain balance
among the hard-liners, the
reform movement and the
masses. This state of affairs
marks the collapse of the
Islamic regime's popular
support and reveals Iran's
instability.
Analysis
Iran’s Islamic Revolution is
on the verge of collapse.
After more than 20 years in
power, Iran’s clerical regime
is threatened by a popular
reform movement, which
challenges its legitimacy.
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Related Analysis:
Iran Prepares for Possible
Attack on Afghanistan
-11 September 2001
U.S. Faces Dilemma in
Relations with Iran
-12 August 1998
There are those, like President Mohammad Khatami, who would support re-engagement
with Europe and the United States, seeing a U.S. war against terrorism as an
opportunity for rapprochement and greater economic development. But others such as
supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would oppose any cooperation with America
against other Muslim countries, regardless of the economic benefits.
Following the Sept. 11 attacks, Khatami and Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi strongly
condemned the terrorist assault, the state-run news agency IRNA reported. Several
Iranian government officials also called for efforts to eradicate terrorism and hinted at
possible cooperation with America.
There have also been displays of support among the general public. Iran observed a
minute of silence before a Sept. 14 World Cup qualifying match against Bahrain in
memory of those killed in the attacks, IRNA reported. Tehran Mayor Morteza Alviri also
sent New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani a message of condolence Sept. 17.
But at the same time Khamenei categorically stated, "The Islamic Republic of Iran …
condemns any probable military action against Afghanistan," IRNA reported Sept. 17. A
variety of hard-line dailies in the country have published editorials opposing U.S.
retaliation. And senior member of Iran's parliamentary Foreign Policy and National
Security Committee warned that Washington should not turn the terrorist attack into a
war against Islam, the online Iranian newspaper Hayat-e Now reported Sept. 16.
Given the divisions within the government itself, and the delicate nature of Iranian
internal politics, it will be difficult for Tehran to decide on a course of action in working
with the United States. These difficulties will likely prevent Iran from providing the United
States direct assistance such as military basing or use of its air space, even if
diplomatic relations are reopened.
While Tehran may not be able to work directly with Washington, it is uniquely
positioned to provide a variety of help, including intelligence and logistical support. For
one, its geographic location would allow direct access to neighboring Afghanistan. Iran,
with the only Shiite Muslim government in the world, is opposed to the Sunni Muslim
Taliban.
Tehran's hard-line Islamic leaders certainly share many similarities with their radical
counterparts among the Taliban. But fundamentally, the two groups are like the
Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland. They oppose each other because each is
perceived as a threat to the other's way of life.
For instance, the Taliban regime has threatened the Shiite population in Afghanistan.
And Iran, as a transit state for drugs produced in Afghanistan, suffers from a host of
drug-related problems including a high addiction rate among its own citizens.
Geopolitically, the current conflict in Afghanistan brings in a variety of players including
India and Russia, thus leaving Iran's eastern flank vulnerable to potential rivals.
Iran's influence with the Northern Alliance, the Taliban's opposition in Afghanistan, could
make the rebel group a U.S. proxy fighting force on the ground, with the Northern
Alliance relating intelligence and logistical information about the movements of both the
Taliban and suspected bin Laden associates.
Iran may be willing to coordinate efforts to bolster the Northern Alliance and perhaps
even share limited intelligence with Washington because Tehran would also benefit from
the Taliban's downfall.
With the Taliban out and the Northern Alliance filling the power vacuum, Iran would likely
see a decrease in refugees from Afghanistan and an increase in border security. Its
access to the new ruling government in Kabul would also help it counter Russia's
influence in Central Asia and give it greater leverage in its dealings with Moscow, India,
Pakistan, the United States and any other nation or multinational oil company with
interests in the region. |
