In looking back at the crashes in 1987, 1998, and earlier this year, I cannot find an instance where the low was a closing low. Most of the lows came with an intra-day bounce.
Looking at the technicals for the SPX, NDX, and COMPX, it would seem that we need to drop for the first hour or two before any type of decent bounce can happen. None of them have really turned up yet.
The technicals are so close to turning, however, that if you bought mutual funds, the close of today could be the near term low for funds.
It is difficult to find support levels for the NDX and COMPX. From what I can find, COMPX 1540 seems a decent support level. NDX 1235-1237 is also decent support (About QQQ 30.90). I did not look at the SPX, NYA, or DJI, as we don't seem to be trading those here.
The one thing all these crashes seem to have had in common was a huge surge of buying once the bottom was found (at least for the first couple of days). I'm wondering what is going to give us the catalyst for strong, sustained buying? |
