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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Oblomov who wrote (123043)9/17/2001 10:22:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
that's true. at the '32 bottom, stocks looked more expensive than at the '29 top when looked at using traditional valuation yardsticks, especially earnings. but the psychological and technical backdrop (trading volume having shrunk by 90% for instance) was indicative of a low. the '74 and '82 bear market lows were also recognizable as such, not only because stocks were actually cheap (earnings don't collapse completely in inflationary bear markets - that happens in deflationary bears), but also because the media were screaming bloody murder and there was a broad consensus that things could only get worse. once we reach that point, we will be near the low this time too.
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