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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: 4rthofjuly007 who wrote (123122)	9/17/2001 11:45:54 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 436258

how much in precious metals is really a question of your risk tolerance and expectations for same. a small percentage should probably be held in ANY model portfolio, due to the fact that they correlate negatively with just about everything else, but especially the dollar. if one looks at both the technical picture and the fundamentals, one of them looks weak right now, and the other one strong. this is regardless of the recent events...simply a look at trend lines and moving averages, interest rates and contangos. regarding the possibility of a bounce into December for tyhe NAZ, i wouldn't rule it out, especially if we put in some sort of credible capitulation low by mid October or so. but i wouldn't want to name targets, as that depends partly on where the decline ends up. the geopolitical events are actually fitting themselves to the cycles, not the other way around imo. what's different is that the market moves become more compressed, i.e they are larger in shorter time frames than they would have been otherwise.

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