Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, September 17th, 2001:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 201.7 Million**BULLISH
SPX Short- URSA 256.5 Million**Inversion
NDX Long - OTC 783.0 Million**BULLISH - Near 3 Yr LOW
NDX Short- Arktos 97.9 Million**BULLISH
XAU Precious Metals 61.1 Million
Banking 19.8 Million**BULLISH - Near 1 year low
Biotech 299.1 Million**BULLISH - New 2 year low
Money Market 1.555 BILLION**Oversold
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index)
SPX Long - TITAN 60.7 Million**BULLISH - Inversion
SPX Short- TEMPEST 94.6 Million**BULLISH
NDX Long - VELOCITY 118.2 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 94.3 Million**BULLISH
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Little did I know that many of last Monday's scenario in commentary would come to pass I wish I would have been dead wrong:
...<MM TA finally above 1.5 Billion and above this level portends a reversal is dead ahead. One of the next two trading days should be down hard to flush steadfast bull hopes down the drain before the counter-trend launch erupts. NDX Velocity continues to be a thorn in bulls side. Today was the second trading day in the last two weeks that the CBOE Equity Index P/C Ratio traded above 1 every half hour all day long. BULLISH. VIX, TRIN and Rydex read all lined up. Just need that BKX 780 potential pierce and test with one day close false break about 1 in 4 chance>...
A few observations:
1) NDX closed at NDX 1,252.70 today and this is below the Oct 16, 1998 NDX close when NDX closed at NDX 1,293.91.
Why is this important?
Because it is the last trading day the NDX traded below 1,300 before the market accelerated its take-off. Also, Rydex NDX OTC TA were 500 Million after launching from 309.9 Million TA only 6 trading days earlier at the bottom on October 8, 1998. NDX closed at NDX 1,128.88 on that bottom day. After October 16, 1998 - Rydex NDX OTC TA mushroomed higher and never looked back (gary if you kept records the next week of '98 please share your data).
2) Also important last Monday I mentioned the demarcation line in the BKX is BKX 780 death row support. I said we could possibly have a one day close false break of 780 - but if it materializes we will reverse and close right back above this level the very next trading day. Tomorrow I believe BKX close solidly higher and back above BKX 780 for the reversal.
If I am wrong, and we fail this important litmus test then it will only get worse as triple witch comes into play the end of this week.
3) CBOE Equity Index P/C Ratio closed at 1.11 and above 1 for the second consective trading day. This is extremely important because to the best of my knowledge, we have not had back to back consecutive days above 1 since 1998. Someone feel free to correct me if I am in error and please post the back to back dates if I am wrong. Market is extremely oversold everywhere across most major indices(below 30) on the most stringent test the 21 day RSI.
I believe tomorrow we rally hard and recover at least 1/3 and most likely half of what we lost today across the board in the broad market.
Today I bought HIFN as it traded as low as just over 1 X book value this morning at the lows. Stock firmed up and then sold into the bell.
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My heart continues to mourn over the lives lost and missing as I have felt a terrible void and emptiness over my helplessness to speak out in this human tragedy.
God, heavenly Father, help and guide us all in your infinite wisdom to make the right choices in the spirit of love; but also in retribution for the lives lost and those still missing and every family affected by this horror so that they may not die in vain in this hate guiled act. And I ask that you receive this prayer, in love, in your Son Jesus' name, our Lord and Savior, Amen.
Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC
Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN
Best Regards, J.T. |
