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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 217.15

-2.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: GST who wrote (131381)	9/18/2001 2:28:32 AM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (1) of 164684

Hi GST I think that, even without the terrorists, the market would have sunk. Somewhat unnoticed among all the other news was a big fall in the UMich consumer confidence number. Given the importance of the consumer in holding up the economy, this would have given the market a very bad day if it had been open at the time. I suspect we would not be far from where we are now. The impact of the attack is difficult to guess IMO. There is going to be a lot of fiscal stimulus from Washington and we have already seen interest rate cuts both here and in Europe. OTOH consumer confidence is going to take a big hit at a very critical time, and a fair bit of production has been lost over the past week. If consumer confidence does not quickly recover then a deep and extended recession looks likely. Today's drop in the market was pretty much what I expected, but the next few days are going to be very interesting.

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