Jon,
Thanks for clarifying some of the ambiguities in the "home per node" issue. I am trying to get a handle on whether there is any significant degree of differentiation from one system to another. (Not that it matters from a competitive standpoint, since they are all monopolies in their own territories). Just trying to learn what the most cost effective approach is as to implementation.
From an investment choice standpoint, there are the MSOs (with varying debt loads, different geographic markets and various degrees of experience in internet and dialtone) and the HFC companies (HLIT and ANTC). I usually like to pick leaders in their respective categories even if they are a bit more expensive. But with the MSOs, since they don't compete with each other in the short run, the game is a little different. I believe they do compete in the long run, as the first to find the right formula may have the financial success needed to gobble up other territories. Right now it is a build and wait game for penetration to justify the investment. Recent articles I've seen indicate that Gates' 1B is a mere drop in the bucket and wont mean much to speed upgrade plans.
I've heard good things about UMG. I guess I'm a bit ambiviolent about @Home's complicated business model. Cable modems don't interest me as an investment because they will become cheap commodities. If you have any ideas about winners and losers in this game, I'd lke to hear about them. To me, the losers would seem to be the LECs, except they will probably be bailed out by their international joint ventures.
Later,
SC |
