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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks

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To: Claude Cormier who wrote (2179)	9/18/2001 11:03:58 AM
From: russwinter	of 4051

<Have you done some sort of calculation on productions cuts to happen in the next 3-5 years.> If we stay below 300, and just based on standard depletion I calculate about 30-35% within five years. It kind of looks like about 6%-7% a year pretty steadily. Could be higher if you get force majeure episodes somewhere or big energy spikes. Poor company financial condition is going to be a factor too. I've called that the "slumlord thesis": just use it up until something breaks, and fail to fix it. There are some real marginal mines out there. This list is representative and I found more after these posts: Message 16111414 Message 16114018 Note that recent successful (Pipeline for example) exploration results have usually been at the good longer life mines and do little for the half decade picture. There could be some increased production from these sites, but I really wonder if that makes sense below 300. I don't think so in most cases.

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