No doubt we are short term oversold,
but if the long term is going to have any hope
energy prices "must come down" the cost of energy
is permeated in every thing we do.
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The push for cap gains TAX scares the hell out of me,
I told every one the last time it would kill
"widow and Orphan" type funds first. "it always does"
Take CSCO over half of the NEW SHARES that diluted
the hell out of her were because of cheap options to the
Big insiders. That is repeated over and over where CEOs
CFOs and others get options for pennies on the dollar, .
You can bet they want a cap gains tax cut.
It looks like it's going to be forced through, and the general
public is being brain washed into thinking it's a good
thing, while it primary function is to let insiders and the
underwriters dilute stock & rip off the public with out
paying as much tax.
Most of the articles you read on this won't agree,
the Lobby for it knows how to put up arguments
slick enough that would have Eskimos buying refrigerators.
They predominate the major news media.
I told every one who would listen the last Cap gain Tax
cut was the prelude to a market melt down but no one
would listen.
It could take another 5 years to find a bottom , BUT
even if the carnage does stop I'll bet in the next 5yrs
the major indexes will not make a new high,
& it maybe 10 to 20ys before we
see March 2000 again ..
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The majority of People can't retire off of stocks,
there is no real money behind them for that to
work; the economy must expand considerable
faster than people retire if the market is to go up,
as it takes more money coming in "just to hold" a level due to
slippage , the crap that there's a buyer for every seller
and that makes it OK is BS, the shares still become
more and more diluted as almost 25% is going
to insiders dumping out and the market makers.
I always said it was a glorified ponzi scam,
but I thought like some others the crooks could
keep it going until 2010...but now I think they know
they've lost it and just want to prolong the collapse
and milk it as long as they can.
Take CNBC yesterday, calling BAD- GOOD, a
bloody nose is good just because it's orderly ?
Crap.
Short term rallies seem to run into resistance just to soon,
The VIX looks A OK right now , but it's not just it's
level that counts , It has to stay high ( above 30 ) for
long enough to build a base. If every time the market
rallies some it drops right back to the low 20s then
we don't have what it takes to keep going.
I want to see 3months of VIX ( or at least 2 ) with an average above
30 before I will think we have enough bearishness
to break above any meaningful resistance to end
this bear market & at this time I have little hope that's going
to happen.
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Jim |
