Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.17

-1.4%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52458)	9/18/2001 4:29:44 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Jacob, I think you may want to take better heed of Cary's warnings. Some time ago he said it was possible for AMAT to go into the teens in this downturn, even though he did not believe this was likely. Many people here laughed and wrongly labeled him a permabear. I would have considered such a scenario only a 10% probability at that time, but now would give it a 25% probability. The AMAT January 2003 30 put is trading at 7.3. In other words people are buying insurance to limit their potential downside to 22.7. I am considering selling such insurance policies. In any case, if you are starting a scaledown buy program, make sure to tune it in accordance with your cash position and expectations of volatility so that you do not in Cary's words "panic at the bottom". Sam

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