SEPT 18 INDEX UPDATE
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NEGATED CLASS 1 SIGNAL on the NAZ/NDX. As explained before, a NEGATED SIGNAL means that my short-term technicals are of no use anymore. I dont recall ever having a NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY signal before, so Im unable to make a pattern comparision. I do recall that I had 7 NEGATED CLASS 1 SELL signals during the bullish period before 2000. Of those 7 NEGATED SIGNALS the DOW/NAZ rallied 1000+ points 3 times.
However, it is not wise to assume that a NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL will work out similar to a NEGATED CLASS 1 SELL SIGNAL. Again, a NEGATED SIGNAL means that my system is USELESS!!!, and although it is a very negative sign the market could still bounce straight from here.
So the way Im going to play this market is not to add any new longs just yet. As mentioned previously, the probability is very high that there will be a retest after some sort of a rally, so I will wait for the rally and probably short it. Then if the retest is successful(within 7%), then I will probably go long that selloff.
I did close the majority of my long positions(UOPIX=long NDX), for a small loss, and am now about 98% cash in my MUTUAL FUND account. If I miss the bounce, oh well, then I missed it except for that very small long position.
Outside of my short-term system, I was surprised to see the TRIN slightly above 1, and not alot higher. Although the VIX is in the "FEAR REGION", it could still head higher, as it did in the spring when to got into the 60 region. So Im not convinced that the immediate short-term bottom has yet been reached. |
