PeopleSoft, Siebel Fall on Worry About Closing Sales
By Ashley Gross
Pleasanton, California, Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- PeopleSoft Inc. and Siebel Systems Inc. shares fell on concern that the software makers won't be able to close sales by the end of the quarter because of last week's terrorist attacks, investors said.
PeopleSoft dropped $4.49, or 18 percent, to $20.46, its fifth- biggest percentage decline ever. Siebel fell $1.94, or 12 percent, to $14.77.
Business-software makers such as PeopleSoft and Siebel depend on completing big sales at the end of the quarter because customers hold out for bigger discounts. The terrorist assault may cause companies to delay purchases, said Loomis Sayles & Co. analyst Tony Ursillo, whose firm manages $65 billion in assets.
``Anybody who's dependent on signing license deals this quarter is up against some really tall obstacles,'' Ursillo said. ``I'm concerned about PeopleSoft. I'm concerned about Siebel. I'm even concerned about SAP (AG),'' said Ursillo, whose company owns ``a few thousand'' shares of PeopleSoft and Siebel.
Officials at Pleasanton, California-based PeopleSoft and San Mateo, California-based Siebel declined to comment. Bill Wohl, a spokesman for Walldorf, Germany-based SAP, said it's too soon to assess the impact of the attacks.
SAP's American depositary receipts, four of which represent an ordinary share, fell $2.40, or 9 percent, to $24.10.
SAP is the largest maker of business-management software, used for tasks such as managing facilities and human resources. PeopleSoft and Siebel both make software for tracking customer accounts.
Siebel and PeopleSoft usually close at least 60 percent of their sales in the third month of the quarter, analysts said. An average sale for Siebel is about $400,000, and a big transaction is anything over $1 million, said Brendan Barnicle, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities. He rates Siebel a ``buy'' and doesn't cover PeopleSoft.
Oracle's Forecast
Oracle Corp., the third-biggest software maker, yesterday lowered its software license revenue forecast for the November quarter, citing concerns about the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the attack. Chief Financial Officer Jeff Henley said he expects software sales to fall 15 percent, instead of his earlier estimate that they would fall 8 percent to 10 percent.
That raises concerns for software companies that observe a calendar year, said Bill Schaff, manager of the Berger Information Technology Fund. The third calendar quarter ends this month.
``You've basically lost one whole week, and you've probably lost most of this week because not too many people are jumping on planes,'' said Schaff, who holds Oracle shares. ``September's a write-off. It's horrible for software.''
Oracle shares rose 37 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $11.38. The Redwood City, California-based company will meet analysts' consensus profit estimate for the November quarter by cutting costs, Henley said yesterday.
The terrorist attacks, which destroyed the World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon, will delay a recovery for the already ailing software industry, said Brent Thill, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston. Companies are still implementing purchases they made during the dot-com boom, he said.
``Spending on new software initiatives is going to take more of a back burner,'' Thill said. He has a ``buy'' rating on both PeopleSoft and Siebel and doesn't own the shares.
The Standard & Poor's Computer Software & Services Index has fallen 18 percent this year and 39 percent in the past year.
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