TA gets difficult when we get into a news dominated environment.
However, I consider your argument that we are always in a news dominated environment.
I'll let others take a bigger picture, but, from my perspective this bull run began 12/94. Looking at OEX, we were in a very tight range from '92 to '94, trading in a roughly 10% range. In fact, OEX closed 12/31/93 at 214.73 and 12/30/94 at 214.31.
Looking at the Fibo retracements from 12/30/94 to the 3/00 high of 846.40, we have blown through the 38% retracement at 605, and, more important for the current decision making process, the Market could not hold the 50% retracement at 530. So, in my mind, OEX 530 is now an upper pivot point. The 62% retracement is at 456, which is brutally close to rugrat's 460 target, and represents the potential for another 13.5% decline from here. Yuck!
Moving this to the SnP, we have lost the 38% retracement at 1135. We have not yet tested the 50% retracement at 1006, and the 62% retracement is at 877. Not a pretty picture that the Big Boyz are falling faster than larger Market.
I'm not certain that we can even consider the DJIA, as its components have been so radically altered during this period. However, in the FWIW category, we have not challenged the 38% retracement at 8727, the 50% is at 7792, and the 62% is at 6858.
Just a Fugly View from the Swamp
TB |
