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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 662.72

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Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (34276)	9/19/2001 2:43:09 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 68130

To re-cap key points in TLAB Presentation on the general market environment: It was a Q&A session as opposed to a presentation. -View down turn is half over. Expect at least one more year. Expect traction in Q4 of next year. -Analyst view it as only 6 more months, so TLAB is more conservative -View down turn as worst than the 80's (1.5 years) and early 90's (slightly shorter) due to difficult comparsions to amount of money spend during de-regulation, expect hang over to be longer while excesses get worked out -See too many carrier and equipment companies. Expect consolidation. -TLAB is seeing carriers spending on legacy equipment not next generation due to need to leverage existing equipment and fact carrier have inventory of legacy equipment -See SONET being around for a while since it is needed for inter-operatbility between new and old equipment. It is well understood and therefore will still be supported -See hub architecture pre-dominating over mesh (negative for SCMR) since the cost of ownership of having central hubs is cheaper. -Seeing selected spend in some carriers, in general agree with comment that carrier do not have to spend at dime and client can still make a call, higher margins are in DS3 line to client site though -Grooming of optical signal not as much of an issue from their perspective, it was never an issue with client before in older architecture and they down expect it now TLAB specific stuff -Starting new product cycle (Titan 6100, 6500 and 6700) -Still expect good sales on Titan 5500 once market turns as it is constantly being upgraded. -6500 and 6700 competes against ALA, LU and somewhat against CIEN and TELM -Product advantages are higher port densities, better service and provisioning capability -Work a long time with ILEC's -ILEC's have money right now so concentrating on them -1 billion in cash, almost no debt Harry's stuff: -Cash of $2.51 per share -Burn rate based on last Q's numbers $218 million, they have 4.7 Q's of cash.

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