Dear Cornelis,
Thanks for the compliment. I am in agreement with Dr. Jeff regarding needing to break out. To me that would now be a close over 12 5/8 with volume of at least 1,000,000. Those of you that would like to check out TA, look at a chart of OO. You can draw a line connecting the recent lows on bottom and another connecting the recent highs on top, and you can see OO has been in a channel. Right now it is clustered at the top of that channel. When it does break out, it is like releasing the built up pressure from being in that range. The break shold be very obvious, or its validity is suspect.
What basically is happening is this....things are looking better for OO, but everytime it comes up to 12 3/8--12 5/8, those who were the first to buy it after that big gap down many months ago (in that price range), unload (sell) their positions. This is called buyers remorse. They bought banking on a quick rebound in price, but instead watched it hit mid-eights. They have been sitting on a loss for months, and it has been killing them. So, the first chance that they get to sell at break even (the bottom of the big gap at 12 3/8 to 12 5/8), they do. That is why the price has been retreating from this range. Actually, this is a good thing for long OO holders, because it is washing out the "weak" longs. They are selling to the longer term longs (or hopefully the "smart money"). We are witnessing a struggle of power between buyers and sellers at this price range. Hoepefully it will be resolved when all the weak longs have sold, then the amount of buyers will be more than sellers. Then new strong buyers come in and break through that price range. Long term shorts cover, and you get a good run on the price. This is what TA does, tries to take the "pulse" of what the fundamentals are starting to do, but by doing it more objectively that you can with fundamentals.
Fundamentally speaking....went to the NikeTown by my house today. First of all, the sungalsses are NOT being pushed, and the salesmen said that sales were "so-so." Said that it kills Nike that their main man, Jordan, is an Oakley man. Same with Rodman, Gabrielle Rese, etc. Knew more about the OO shareholders meeting that I did. Also, there is a new OO billboard on the 405 (a MAJOR freeway out here), with Jordan wearing the X-Metals. Sunglass hut by my house tells me that as soon as they get the X-metals in, they are gone. No waiting list, just first come first served. Only problem is, they only get two pairs a week.
Also, was at Rodman's house this weekend, and he has a whole closet full of Oakley's. Interesting note, he has a $50,000 audio visual system, but no bed. He sleeps on the floor. Anyway, all this info in interesting, but how do you trade on it?
BCL |
