NVLS Cowens presentation:
-Emphasis is on cooper migration
-top pick for next 5 years
-working for LRCX on advanced processing
-make semiconductor equipment
-can provide enabling technology, trying to be an innovator, touch market environment
-bought a company to allow us to prepare surfaces before our other processes
-make steps that handle inter-connect depositions
-bought thin film division of Varian
-key innovator in cooper migration from alumunium
-IBM made barrier between cooper line and rest of semiconductors
-conductive better, RC constant better 30 percent effects
-Electromigration - pushing electrons through cooper caused conductor to break down, cooper is 40 percent more resistance than alumunium to stress of electromigration
-Since CAGR for industry has been 15 percent
-NVLS has grown typically faster tha industry
-current down trend is steeper than in past
-expect market to go back to 15 percent levels going forward
-99 booking doubled, 2000 doubled booking again, 2001 booking now down to 800 mil.
-steeper and longer down turn than in 1998,
-expect new equipment to grow faster than 15 percent again
-saw strength in Intl markets in 1998, don't see that now,
Japan, Europe and Korean
-Japan unemployment now at 5 percent
-recovery US first, then Taiwain, Europe and then Japan
-oil prices an issue
-lack of consumer confidence an issue
- need recovery of end user markets as catalyst as cost of borrowing is low
- need killer app to get consumer demand back
-3G moving slower that anticipated
-not seeing killer App
-expect Q4 re-bound, in it now
-Spending in 1998 22 percent CAGR, competitor grew 32 percent, NVLS grew 44 percent, NVLS taking share in last 8 years
- INTC looking for 10 gig processor in next few years
- 225 percent increase area with 300 mm transition
-NVLS makes 46 of the 54 layers on a typical chip
-in 1992 we were a two product company - desposit dielectric and tungsten
- new products drove revenue growth
- Cooper growth will accelerate in next up turn
-300 mm market share growth, 9 of 10 top manufactuers now looking at 300 mm, NVLS has wins in 6 of 10
-modelling growth of 15 percent long term
- expect gross margins of 53 percent
- 1.2 bil in cash
-growing cash last Q,
-now 2.1 bil in cash due to debenture
-no long term debt
-Rev should be up over last year,
-Booking down from peak of 1.6 bil, decline of 250 mil expected
- |
