re ADSL deployment
J, I would *LOVE* to see 1million lines a month. Beileve me, I'd be ecstatic ! But, like most things that are too good to be true...
To start with, please remember that ISDN in Germany & in the USA are *VERY* different...
Here, I'd agree that it has been a good role model of 'the slowest it could be introduced'. (Many people predict that cumulative ADSL will overtake cumulative ISDN in the US by 2000.)
There, it is being massively subsidised (a lot of the 5% reconstruction tax is going to Telekom, and that is going to ISDN), a big chunk of the country had no telephony at all and was being rewired al toto (so ISDN from zero makes sense), and they have a very dense loop system.
None of those applied here, and none apply to ADSL.
To start with at least, ADSL will be expensive. The backbone can't yet cope (it bogs down at 28.8 fercrissakes!). The OAM&P needs to be written. The RBOCs need to decide what to do & how to do it. Technicians need to be trained. Then the modems need to be installed (at both ends - you'll need the telephone company to come out and do it at your house).
How many installations will an RBOC be able to make a day?
To put it into context, fifteen years after introduction, with no alternative, really cheap prices, no installation, the w/w roll out of cellular is not that much more than a million a month !
How many modems were sold last year in the US - with CHEAP highstreet sales, decent infrastructure, AOL hyping them, and five-ten years after consumer access became real... 2 million ? 5 million ?
I am sure we will see more than a few million lines A YEAR within the next five years. But a million a month ?
I hope so. But I won't hold my breath.
rupert |
