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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: fedhead who wrote (123465)9/19/2001 12:41:18 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
Anindo, for a modern day rendition of a K-winter, just look at Japan. its winter began in 1990 already (it has historically always led the US by a decade).
i wouldn't bet too much on a revival of tech spending. the sector suffers from huge overcapacities, and lots of malinvestment white elephants that are now cluttering up the landscape. for example, only 2% (!) of existing fiberglass capacity are actually used, and used telco equipment from busted European telecoms (i.e. Cisco routers, Nortel and Lucent equipment) isn't even sold anymore - they throw it on scrap-heaps, because nobody wants it.
yes, about three years after the bubble peak we usually get an inventory drawdown bottom , historically. so there WILL be playable rallies along the way when we get anemic economic recoveries a la Japan over the past decade.
but it will take a long time to actually wash out all the excesses, as the authorities do their utmost to unnecessarily lengthen and deepen the process with constant intervention.
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