I wonder should I short the troubled airlines? Is it unpatriotic? I've got to put bread on the table.
According to Jenkins, the carriers in most immediate jeopardy are Continental, Northwest Airlines (Nasdaq:NWAC - news), America West, US Airways Group (NYSE:U - news) and AirTran Holdings (NYSE:AAI - news).
``We will see some if not all of these carriers file for protection under Chapter 11,'' he said, referring to current traffic projections.
The second tier of carriers which would be in trouble should load factors fall below 20 percent include the three largest U.S. airlines: AMR Corp.'s (NYSE:AMR - news) American Airlines, UAL Corp.'s (NYSE:UAL - news) United Airlines and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL - news), Jenkins said.
``Delta has the most staying power of these,'' he said.
Salomon Smith Barney analyst Brian Harris said carriers with the highest debt-to-capital ratios are Northwest, AirTran, Continental and US Air.
Michael Linenberg, airline analyst at Merrill Lynch, said among top carriers, those with the least number of days of operating cash on hand included America West, Continental, US Air and UAL, although UAL did complete a round of secured financing in August, worth $1.5 billion.
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