MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (8538)	9/20/2001 1:55:39 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 19219

Hi JT; I hope I see something in tonight's RYDEX that indicates a lot more bearishness ( capitulation ) than you seem to see. As of last night it just wasn't there at all, at least not from the angle I'm looking at the data. ---------------------------- I've simplified my overview..I'm now looking at the NAV change percentage to Average NAV VS the Total Assets change to Average Assets Change. In other words a lower TA don't mean capitulation not even a much lower TA not if he NAV is dropping faster than the TA and that's the case with both Nova and OTC. This NAV % vs TA % seems to LAG some but it's scary to see that NOVA traders were more bearish AUG 17th than now yet we are down 16% since then ! However they are 4% more bullish !!! There is no despair & no toss in the towel by the retail gang , as far as I can see the lower we go the more bullish they get. So far The big drop in TA is from the market tanking not people bailing out, you would think that with a 16% drop in NAV money would have come out but not so; the net NOVA flow from AUG 17 is still on the plus side. I guess they want their heads handed to them on a plate before they sell. Maybe today will show some capitulation, but I doubt it. Looks like to me by the time it gets here there won't be much for them to salvage, the pros are taking this market down and feeding the mullets just enough hope to string them along. ---------------------- If I talk about a bottom it will be a short term bottom I'm talking about, for some years I've seen a black hole in front of this market, But I was convinced it was far enough in front of us that one last Big rally would still come before we fell in it. I see to much damage done now to get back above March 2000 before the gravity pulls us in the black hole, & with all these lay offs I don't see enough time left to shore up the pension funds before retirement payments exceed anything the remaining working stiffs can cram into the market. The Gov will have to prop up the market in a last stand, but that's what Japan did..and they are now hitting 18yr lows. Jim . -----------------

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