hey Paul, Summertime "herding cats" stopped awhile back...
...we're dealing with a very real economic collapse & crisis of confidence right now.
people no longer believe that equities have currency, Paul.
the U.S. Treasury is pretty much busted; the printing presses are now running 24/7... with this kind of fiscal rhinitis, it is only a matter of time before the USDollar itself is insulted: though we are now "de-flating", and the government can support the short-end of the bond, the long-end (30Y) of the Treasury Bond reflects the belief by most people/institutions that eventually we must either "de-value" the USD or otherwise experience inflation...
...perhaps not a classical, "COLA" inflation; rather, a "stealth inflation" whereby no one has any pricing power but, the costs of staying "well" (health care), and the costs of "well being" (security) keep going up.
Un-employment is becoming wide-spread, Paul; endemic unemployment ~ beyond tech or manufacturing now, into the service economy. People will have to realize their savings; ie., cash out some or all of their IRA/401K's and unload real estate.
The Fed is out of bullets: it no longer matters whether they cut interest rates, Paul - there is no need for more capacity, capital investment - more stuff at cheaper prices is not gonna make it all better again.
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I don't plan to give up trading ~ it's always been a great sport {grin} but at this point, I'm re-allocating my entire portfolio towards preservation of capital ...
...inflation-proof Treasurys (better yield than MM%, some of which may now fail ~ none of which protect the USD underlying currency)
...commodity-backed preferred stocks, etc.
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the President is talking about a 10-year long WAR, Paul :-/
-Steve
P.S. yeah, strong words ~ I know; I just wanna make sure that TheDudes aren't overwhelmed/in denial (still thinking about "herding cats") because like it or not ~ our world just changed, and we gotta deal with it. |
