J.T. ... maybe you will be correct, and equities will melt-up shortly ... however, in my opinion, chart reading and other technicals have little to do with the action recently ...
Two days ago, on Tuesday, I wrote on SI's All About SUNW, (which I consider my home) ...
<<... I think there is a tendency, right now, for people to genuinely feel, in a psychological way, all of the negative economic and business news. When the small investor capitulates (and mutual funds are forced to sell millions and millions of equity shares), then we may be at or near the bottom. Lots of profit warnings due in the next two or three weeks, and equity markets are very fragile.
My assessment is that we are very close to the final stage of this bear market, although who knows how long it will be after that for accumulation and movement upward to begin. I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 at 850-900 by mid October.>>
Message 16374167
I don't see any reason for my assessment to be different today (except that the S&P may get to 800) ... I am very happy with the March 1175 and 1150 S&P puts that I bought in late August and early September. S&P puts have been big winners for me since July, 2000 except for those of June, 2001 which expired worthless. Overall, they have really saved me.
... while I am talking about the bottom for overall U.S. equity markets in a macro sense, it may be that we will have no significant daily rallies until we hit what probably will be close to the real bottom ...
That is why J.T., in my opinion, your predictions for equity rallies for Wednesday and Thursday (today) have been so far off from what has actually happened (although you have almost two hours left today before the markets close. Until there is some significant good news both politically and economically, I see no reason to believe there will be any significant rallies ... although I have certainly been wrong many times before ...
Sincerely,
Ken Wilson |
