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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: bearshark who wrote (55135)9/20/2001 2:34:21 PM
From: Oeconomicus  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Come now. He wouldn't really take credit for predicting the "further declines" we are now seeing based on a 1.5 in August, would he? If so, I'd discount whatever he says.

I'd agree that the extreme negative sentiment it takes to get a 1.5 reading might be indicative of what direction a negative shock would be likely push the market, but not a predictor of the move itself as that would require predicting the shock. It might even be reasonable to expect that any rally could not normally happen *immediately* from such a level (hence the lag). But it makes no sense to take it as a sign of further significant declines (at least not without a major shock).

I would be interested in seeing what has happened in earlier periods after these kind of readings, so if anyone has a link, TIA.

Bob
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