And hence the need to use common sense in forcasting, it's different each time in so many ways. Each DAY is different than the last.
Just a wild for instance, economists compare the U.S. economy to European ones... economists argue our system better due structural labor and legal differnces and many other issues... what about the availability of practically free land available in the U.S. since the beginning?? How can you even begin to measure the system when one has these resources available. So I propose starting with the big, common sense picture:
what will reverse the current downtrend?? What will stop the implosion, or afterwards begin the recovery? If there is no stopping it, how far will it go?? What is the possible worst scenario, can we really see bread lines??? How does that [not] happen?
IMO, we need to look at unemployment, what sectors, if any, could see massive unemployment, which are safe?
For a start I'd say that real estate is NOT safe, we're going to have a bust out here the size of Manhatten... banks tied to it are going to get creamed IMO... I'd go so far as to say most lending went WAY overboard, banks in general have a long way down... even WITHOUT investment income drying up and all that obvious bad stuff.
More later, son wants to swim.
dAK |
