> I would say their biggest risk is the US consumer risk not to move to digital television
The reason I am interested in GMST in the midst of this crap market is precisely that GMST for the most part is tech. agnostic. They will continue to make money, as long as people keep watching TV's. Doesn't matter which channel they watch, as long as they have a GMST enabled TV or they have cable. The only people GMST doesn't reach is people who only watch "over the air" on non-GMST tv's. That's fairly close to neanderthals! Digital TV, purchase of DirectTV etc. etc. will accelerate the penetration, but imo the oncoming recession won't stop it.
Regarding digital TV's, yeah, agreed. US consumer is much slower than (say) Japanese consumer. One needs only visit Tokyo to see that! BUT, digital TV's broadcast is mandated by FCC, and the increased bandwidth of digital is a come-on for the networks. By 2003 things on digital front will definitely get moving. The recession, and the ensuing fall in hardware prices is actually a positive for GMST(when the US finally recovers).
Also, look at SEBL. While they are not going great guns anymore, afaik, western europe is cushioning the blow(since western europe didn't spend nearly as much on IT before Y2K and needs to catch up). Eventually(imo) SEBL will make a strong recovery! I took the bait and bought some yesterday!
The market feels really sick to me, but I am willing to buy in, batten the hatches and wait it out. Oh yeah, and my crap yielding money market account gives me a great feeling these day... |
