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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: SirRealist who wrote (40649)	9/21/2001 7:49:30 AM
From: Irene Lynn	Read Replies (2) of 50167

hello...i rarely post but i would like to comment on your statement only because i have been following some people who are following the theory of Nikolai Kondrtieff who was a russian agricultural economist that predicted world wide economic collapse based on his study of history...which he says that you only have to make one basic decision every 50 years whether to buy or sell...if you apply that theory to the market, if you get fully invested in equities at the right point of a down cycle and sell at the midpoint of a down cycle you can make a tremendous amount of money...this bull market began in 1982, which was precisely the midpoint of the down cycle..the midpoint of this up cycle is 2007..the market has 6 strong years left according to him..sirrealist, when you mentioned 2007 i was wondering where you were getting this projection from..and another guy as many might know is harry dent who says pretty much the same..however, there is another person whom i can't remember offhand who basically says that we are done with the cycle..and are now going into a severe depression and a big down turn that could last 12 yrs before the next big bull run...Kondratieff and Dent both say after 2007/2008 we would be headed for a depression to last 12 yrs..so i was curious if anyone has read anything on these cycles and care to discuss it...i have followed you ike for a few years...and do admire your preception on life and the market...i don't post anymore because it is too time consuming and also i don't like to get involved with emotions which ..calvin knows me and know my reasons why too...HI calvin!..i'm glad you have come back ike, and i'd appreciate your input on this subject..i feel i will have a better feel for things by 1st qtr whether things are headed for a depression or a recovery..right now it doesn't feel good..but luckily our retirement money is in the money market and i have a system with my mutual funds that have helped me with very good returns in a safe way in a very difficult market.last year i was up 33%..this year is slower but i'm still doing very well....i can't trade this market and rather sit that part out..but i feel so bad for those who are and have been holding their positions only because of history showing it's good to ride things through..i feel it's a different market today than ever and will be going foward..we all need to educate ourselves on economics in order to understand where our money should be and then change that direction when the economy is changing too...buy and hold i feel is gone for a while..for the past 2 years we have all gone through a pain that will not be forgotten and i feel that many people will say "i'll do it too the next time" and become traders rather than long term investors...i sure hope i'm wrong but the pyschology could be changed forever..sorry to go on and on..i guess this is what happens when one doesn't post for a long time <GG>.. God Bless America! irene

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