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Biotech / Medical : Vivus, Why the Slide?

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To: Edderd who wrote (2170)6/23/1997 8:19:00 AM
From: Richard Singer   of 3991
 
Ed

Accounts receivable figures reflect past sales, so these can not be included again.

For Vivus, since sales should be roughly equal to production, a sales estimate could be made by trying to guess the average wholesale cost of one unit ($17 or $18) x production which should be between 1.9 and 2 million units. There must be an allowance for product which may be unsaleable, and we have nothing but guesswork here-maybe 10% ? So my best guess on sales becomes $17.5 x 1,790,000 (1,900,000 less 10%) = $31,325,000.

Earnings are more difficult, because we do not know what the cost of inventory is. We only know that in the 1st quarter earnings benefited by low inventory costs due to early inventory purchases being written off to R&D. The gross margin for this quarter will probably be lower than last quarter. My own guess is that earnings will exceed .30/share.

Hope any of this is helpful.

Richard
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