I would lean to the middle of the two numbers. The WGC are not trying to prove a case, they are looking at the numbers from many different angles (supply, demand, central banks, jewelry trade, investment etc.) and attempting to reconcile and explain those numbers. Because many rich and poor people, criminals, etc., seek to hide their wealth from others so they aren't subject to attack by thieves or the taxman, all the flows and depositories of gold will never be known. I think it is safe to say there is a lot more gold out there, and the flows are much greater than the published numbers suggest.
Gold displays characteristics of both a commodity, and the ultimate storehouse of wealth and currency. Because of the latter, the POG will be distorted by the current state of the human psyche,...we will continue to get radical swings causing bubbles and depressions of the price that would under normal circumstances be dictated by simple commodity supply and demand considerations.
Gold is contained in the human soul, so you will never be able to predict its behavior with much certainty (gggggggggggggggggg). |
