Heard Steven Burrill, a true biotech visionary, talk at this years Gene Acres Biofacilities conference. Thought I'd share a few of his points:
Up until last week, many people thought that his Stem Cells decision would be the biggest decision of Bush's presidency...
Biotech raised $32B in 2000, $7B in 2001 YTD with an estimate of $10B for the full year. This is in comparison to about a $5B average for the years prior to 2000.
After these terrorist attacks, biotech will be in better shape relative to other industries.
System Biology is the next revolution.
Value is moving from Rx (Drugs) to DX (Diagnostics) due to genomics. As you more personalize and customize drug usage, the diagnostics become more important and the drugs usage more targeted, and thus sales of each drug smaller.
Biotech as an industry is near its bottom, shares are trading near their cash per share value when looked at as an industry. Much of the $40B raised in the last 2 years is still in the bank.
Cap markets volatility will continue
In bio large # of public companies, few analysts, little data leads to an inefficient market.
Big Bio's will continue to acquire small ones (we don't have bankruptcy, but eat our own dead).
Biotechs are THE source of innovation for the big pharmas.
System Biology is the driving change
Increases in diagnostics to direct the therapeutic product usage.
Agbio/Nutraceuticals/BioMaterials are all emerging
Challenges: genethics, cloning, gene therapy, Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO's), Stem Cells
Rules of game continue to change.....
As far as investing in biotech:
Portfolio dynamics: buy in different bio sectors and stages then hold for 5 years. In the meantime: don't look and cancel your subscription to the Wall Street Journal. You can't successfully, consistently time this sector.
My apologies to Steven Burrill for any misquotes in my paraphrasing. There was a lot more he said of course, but I didn't take copious notes.
Rman |
