DAYTRADING Fundamentals Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals

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To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (14185)	9/21/2001 8:15:39 PM
From: Ira Player	of 18137

I cut this from a PM regarding "Gut feel". I had to use PM because the original comment was made in a thread I do not participate in because of a possible conflict of interest. However, the main points are still relevant... Sorry again for the PM, but I am associated with ** and never post to any ** board. But this one has some of the best discussions! >>"Gut feel" equals extrapolating the current sentiment into the future.<< Maybe your gut feel works that way. But what about the gut feel of an experienced floor trader who can just tell -- he isn't sure how -- when the tide is about to turn? Or the gut feel of an industry veteran who has seen several cycle bottoms up close and has learned to spot the early signs that fundamentals are improving? I interpret "Gut feel" as intuition and the most appropriate definition of intuition in this case is "the power or faculty of attaining direct knowledge or cognition without evident rational thought and inference" People take for granted that after years of driving, you can navigate complex traffic patterns, avoid idiots (as others are avoiding you....) and get to your destination without effort and without really thinking about the driving. However, the same type of automated process providing analysis of trading patterns, volume levels, noise in the pit and myriad other tips that the professional may use to his/her advantage is dismissed as guessing. As a technology professional, I cannot always rationally explain the detailed thought process that I used to arrive at a decision. Some possible solutions are dismissed at the brainstorming stage because I "know" they will not work or will be too difficult to control. I believe that is the primary value I add to the organization. By limiting the size of the solution set to target the most probable solutions. Intuition is not something you are born with. It is the knowledge accumulated during a lifetime that is applied without conscious thought. That doesn't mean the thought process is not there, just that you do not explicitly review it in the foreground of your mind. Now, go back to your regularly scheduled reading. Sorry for the PM intrusion (again). Ira

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