From Rande:
suite101.com
What is there left to say after the greatest one-week percentage decline for the Dow in 68 years? Where can investors seek refuge? Some still cling to their charts and technical indicators for guidance on what comes next, some to their favorite fundamental indicators of intrinsic value, some look to their favorite gurus for direction, while still others have given up on the market entirely out of disgust, fear or both.
Then there are those who never relied overly much on any of these things, if at all, but instead relied on the firm foundation of an appropriate asset allocation based on their own circumstances and coupled it with patience and discipline. They stuck to their plan when the market was soaring, even though others were giving in to the temptation to load up on stocks in general and this or that sector or high-flying stock in particular. Back then it was hard to refrain from buying, harder still to sell when the stock allocation rose too high. Now, they stick to their discipline even though it's hard to refrain from selling, to continue to buy on a regular periodic basis. But that is exactly what those with discipline and patience do. Forget the short-term fundamentals, forget the charts, forget the sentiment, forget those who say they know. All those foundations for taking investment action are constantly shifting and as unstable as sand. Acting on emotion after neglecting to implement an appropriate asset allocation policy and sticking to it with discipline and patience is a recipe for disaster. But, then, long-term investing is not for everybody. Many are called, few are chosen. If you're able to develop a plan, stay the course and keep the faith, then it's for you.
Would really prefer to be posting "The Latest" after an up day from the previous lows. Maybe next week? In the meantime, here's....
The Latest (as of 9/21 close):
YTD 2001:
DJIA -23.7%
S&P -26.9%
SPY -25.3%
VTSMX (W5000 Index Fund) -26.4%
Nas -42.4%
QQQ -51.7% (so much for the 50% QQQ rally called for in the Jan01 MT)
R2000 -21.6%
MDY (S&P 400 Midcap) -25.3%
VEURX (European Index Fund) -35.1%
Since 12/31/99:
DJIA -28.4%
S&P -34.3%
SPY -32.3%
VTSMX -33.8%
Nas -65.0%
QQQ -69.2%
R2000 -24.9%
MDY -6.8%
VEURX -39.9%
50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond -3.1%
Since Previous Closing Lows:
DJIA (9/21/01; ) +0.0%
S&P (9/21/01) +0.0%
SPY (9/21/01) +0.0%
W5000 Fund (9/21/01) +0.0%
Nas (9/21/01) +0.0%
QQQ (9/21/01) +0.0%
R2000 (9/21/01) +0.0%
MDY (9/21/00) +0.0%
VEURX (9/21/01) +0.0%
Since Previous Closing Highs:
DJIA (1/14/00) -29.8%
S&P (3/24/00) -36.8%
SPY (3/24/00) -35.3%
VTSMX (3/24/00) -38.2%
Nas (3/10/00; ) -71.8%
QQQ (3/24/00) -76.1%
R2000 (3/9/00) -37.5%
MDY (9/7/00) -25.5%
VEURX (3/24/00) -41.9%
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Benchmark Closing Lows (lows since previous all-time highs):
DJIA 8235.81 (9/21/01)
S&P 965.80 (9/21/01)
SPY 97.28 (9/21/01)
VTSMX 21.40 (9/21/01)
Nas 1423.19 (9/21/01) (intra -- 1387.06 on 9/21/01)
QQQ 28.19 (9/21/01) (intra -- 27.20 on 9/21/01)
R2000 378.89 (9/21/01)
MDY 74.45 (9/21/01)
VEURX 16.85 (9/21/01)
Market Cycle Peak to Trough:
DJIA (1/14/00 - 9/21/01) -29.8%
S&P (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -36.8%
SPY (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -35.3%
VTSMX (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -38.2
Nas (3/10/00 - 9/21/01) -71.8%
QQQ (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -76.1%
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Index returns are price change only, ETFs and mutual funds including divs/distributions. Returns not guaranteed as to accuracy -- relying on unaudited third-party sources (may have missed a dividend or two, which would understate returns). |
