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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1986)9/21/2001 11:12:32 PM
From: Roebear  Read Replies (2) of 36161
 
JimL,
La Nina does not necesarily mean a mild winter in the US, esp. the east coast. It is very dependent on the NAO and also the stage and strength of the La Nina.
Heavy snow winter of 95-96 was a weak La Nina with a strong negative NAO.
This is what I am expecting for this winter, though I will not go on record, yet, for it equaling 95-96. Snowfall I expect above normal, temp below normal.

Here is some interesting thermohaline circulation notes from Bill Gray via Dr Dew Joe D'Aleo:

Bill Gray has pointed out in his hurricane season forecasts that salinity and sea surface temperature pattern changes in the Atlantic suggest a change in the huge thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic. Dr. Gray indicates it has changed to a pattern reminiscent of the one seen through the 40's, 50's and 60's, which led to more hurricanes and more blocks in winter. You can see from the NAO winter graph that the NAO was predominantly negative during those decades. Though these large scale oceanic water circulations may not force the blocks to occur every year; they do favor stronger and more persistent blocks when other factors (like maybe ENSO and the QBO) dictate they occur and weaken the other phase when it is favored by other factors.
***

No more time to pursue this, outta here till Sunday night for some R&R.

A good trading week in a tough bear market deserves some celebration, ggg

Best

Roebear
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