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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: TGPTNDR who wrote (56030)9/22/2001 12:35:07 AM
From: kash johalRead Replies (3) of 275872
 
TGPTNDR,

re: lots of cheap stocks.

There sure are ton of cheapo stocks.

The absolute worst case scenario IMHO is another 50% haircut.

I really like playing the Intel+AMD combo.

There are few market segments where the ENTRY cost and IP cost is so high and only two VIABLE suppliers.

The amazing thing is that this market segment is ALSO the LARGEST hi-tech semiconductor segment too.

I think overall that Intel is positioned very well over next 2-3 years:

1. 64 bit merced platforms should start to contribute in 2-3 years.

2. Cap-Ex has been so HUGE in 2001 that their capital requirements going forward will be much lower enabling very good YOY comparisons.

3. The brand is still so very strong - to such an extent that there are no single Business solutions.

4. The PIV with Jackson technology coupled with SSE2 optimizations and excellent scalability of hyper-pipelined core will provide a pretty compelling desktop core for next 1-2 years.

5. AMD factor.

If AMD screws up Intel could easily be worth 4-5 todays valuation.

If AMD does OK then Intel still has a stable base of business and when unit growth resumes they will do well.

If AMD has another hit with Hammer and Intel stumbles then AMD could be 10x of todays valuation.

So buying both enable to play an interesting hedge.

In fact the only way i see both being much lower than today in a few years is if the overall economy enters some kind of elongated recession/depression.

In that event all hi-tech stock will likely be a bust anyway.

Just my .02.

regards,

Kash
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