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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: John F Beule who wrote (11920)	9/22/2001 12:40:57 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) of 12823

<<So what do you make of this technology landscape?>> Forget for the moment the technology landscape and think: 'Business Landscape'. Then re-phrase it as: What can you make out of this business landscape? What I'm doing right now is looking at this business landscape and trying to make happen like this: If there is a business that can be realized, lets go out there in the technology pool (technologies are aplenty) and get the technology that make possible this business. <<Is the fear justified, or are we at the polar opposite of the bull market, and we'll meet in the middle.>> I think we didn't hit the opposite of the pendulum, which would make us think it will be about to swing back. The fears are not unjustified. See, please, the FT article: "Glorious hopes on a trillion-dollar scrapheap" Dan Roberts explains how reckless optimism has led to bankruptcies, job losses and an awesome glut of capacity Published: September 4 2001 18:01GMT \| Last Updated: September 4 2001 18:22GMT <<Will these little companies with (what was)cash flow run out and be acquired?>> I am expecting the same that happened with the CLECs (Northpoint, Rhythms and Covad, Winstar etc) to happen to smaller ones. The smaller and weaker die first because they'll run out of cash. There may be a very few that will be acquired in the same way Northpoint was acquired by AT&T. (Don't know if you followed that). There is no currency to acquire. The currency used to be overvalued stocks. The fact is: we have much more technologies in the pool than businesses can chew. And we have many more suppliers of these technologies than the market can warrant. So, some will disappear. <<Or will they simply run out of time. I guess I just asked you the million dollar question..sorry :-)>> No. They won't run out of time. There is time enough as you can see in my 5 year timeline for the next purchase cycle. They will run out of cash. Which is the limiting thing here. Whenever you have this million dollars I can give you my bank account number :-)

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