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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread

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To: Rick Storm who wrote (28458)	9/22/2001 11:51:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 30051

Rick - the difference is who is buying. Equity puts are soaring while the COTs seem to be reversing (if only a bit). It will be interesting to see if this trend continues. Possibly another day or two of extreme tics and talk of 1000 naz will do it. Once The average guy gets all the puts he can afford I am sure the trend will change. Are we there? If we are not, we are close. I am a very cautious long however. 90% cash as of the moment but I have jumped the gun a bit. Fortunately in these past 100 Naz points JNPR has only lost a point or so and NEWP a half point or so. I also believe this is a relief rally and nothing more, as soon as I have profits I will likely take them and not question them. I prefer calls even though they are expensive because I know exactly what my exposure is. If I lose 100% of 10-15% I will be fine. I am also trying to diversify. I had NEM for most of the past month and did pretty well with it. Got in at 18 and out at 21, paid the piper and got back in at 22 and out at 24. Wish all my trades went as well. I need to sharpen my skills more and stay with the trend more, but taking small profits and being heavy in cash has me far more relaxed. I guess I would still plead caution. The major alert with P/C this high for a week and reduction in COTs is probably a call for shorts to lighten up more so that bulls to go long. Enough is enough BUT... Have the fund outflows stopped or are they about to? If people keep pulling out of funds, we will keep going down. One thing that does have me quite concerned is being in any stock that has not yet warned (yet again). NEWP could easily get sliced 30% if they warn. EMLX I am taking a hit on because of storage. I have until Jan or Feb for my calls to recover. Once I get a diversified basket I will probably just sit on it, stay heavy in cash and hope for the best. If they chop NEWP to 10, or CRA to 16, perhaps I will have enough guts or sense to load up the truck but then again, who says NEWP can not fall to cash on hand?

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