Technical analysis for shorts & longs Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (34399)	9/22/2001 3:50:26 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 67876

I am going to try to focus on stocks trading below their cash levels in sectors that could potentially benefit in the re-bound this weekend. Typically, these are stocks that are not necessarily considered leaders in their sectors. The institutional will typical concentrate on names they know like MSFT, CSCO and INTC first, but when the leaders finally show signs of life these second tier stocks should follow if the re-bound is sustained and the cash levels should put a floor underneath the stock. A buy back can also add 20 percent to these stocks in a single day as indicated by NUFO on Friday. The general criteria is that the stock should be trading below cash, has some new product that will be released soon as to stimulate revenues or have a unique niche that they have a leadership position in with a barrier to entry or a competitive advantage. The idea is to take positions in these stocks once the rally is confirmed by the leaders. Given the amount of energy built into the market on the down side the upside bounce could move fast. Once the leaders run out of steam traders will typically rotate into the lagards. I think this strategy is lower risk as the rally need to confirm before you enter and the cash is a cushion if you are wrong. LNOP, AVNX, AVCI are three, anyone want to add more? I will be doing more detailed profiles on the stocks later. In general this is what I am looking for: LNOP: Cash 25 mil Share Out:6.45 mil Closing Price on Friday: 3.75 Market Cap as of Friday: 24.19 mil Burn Rate: Unknown as they just finished transitioning out of their older network equipment business Pro: About to release a line of network processors for GigE in December. Fabless semiconductor company. Fab facilities through IBM, Has design win with LU. IBM has an equity position. Con: Israeli management. Cultural difference make getting their story out difficult. Not known for managing the expectations of the street very well. No analysts coverage currently.

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