Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: X Y Zebra who wrote (10085)	9/22/2001 8:28:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Hello XYZ, welcome. <<Do you see oil prices going up in the middle of a world-wide recession/deflation ? My assumption ...>> I agree, under ordinary circumstances, with your assumptions, as these were my assumptions until a short while ago, now overtaken by greater issues. Here are some genuinely worrying possibilities ... (a) a tanker is sunk in Strait of Hormuz, causing insurance rate to zip up, or necessitating naval escort, expensed via price of load; (b) a pipeline section is blown up in the middle of nowhere but where you know; (c) a refinery is sabotaged; (d) a royal house is overthrown in the desert; (e) ... <<Not to worry about nationalization as both Venezuela (1975-76) and Mexico (1937 - 38) have nationalized their oil industries>> Oops, and thus can price gouge with impunity already, but without investor equity participation. Thanks for the good news ... looks like we will then have to consider KastelCo's Canadian sands. Chugs, Jay

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