very good post. I agree.
But, olive garden on a friday night is not a good indicator by itself. Many of these type have waiting lists every weekend.
I saw a thing on CNBC where they said Rest.s were down 5-20% the week of the attacks. I spoke with one company, MAIN, and they said they were down, but not that much and since there is only a few days left in this quarter, they will report their 18th consecutive quarter of same store sales increases.
Since MAIN has pulled back from nearly $6 to $3.25, I have reloaded some of the shares I sold on strength.
Using a 5 x EBITDA multiple gives the shares a value of about $5, using 6 X it would be about $6.67 .
And their future is a fairly new concept called Bamboo Club.
With 2 new stores opening soon. Fantastic economics for this concept.
My biggest fear for the market is payback. Payback, not for the tech bubble, but for the many,many year bull market prior to that with only 87 in the way.
I fear valuations could stay down and we could do nothing for several years.
Look at 1929, it bottomed 3 years later in 1932 and for folks that paid the high in 1929, it took 20 years to break even.
We have fear in the market, just not THAT kind of fear ! |
