With possible further complications ...
china.scmp.com
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Thursday, September 20, 2001
PLA sees Afghan conflict as threat to border stability
MARK O'NEILL
China is beginning to come to terms with a likely attack by the United States on Afghanistan, but concerns are being raised about the possible consequences for the region. The Foreign Ministry expressed support for action against terrorism on Tuesday, but also stressed that any US response should be carefully considered and must comply with international law.
Expanding on these remarks, a North American specialist at an official think-tank warned that a US military attack on Afghanistan must be short term, reasonable and based on evidence.
Jin Canrong, a professor at the America Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said a Nato occupation of the country would have terrifying consequences for the region. Mr Jin said military action was only a small part of the response the international community must make against terrorism and that a fairer international order and helping the world's poor were needed. While he does not speak for the central Government, his views reflect the opinions of those within it.
Most alarmed is the People's Liberation Army which is charged with protecting China's borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan and central Asia. It sees military conflict in that region as threatening the stability of the far west of Xinjiang, which has a population of about 20 million, half of them Muslim, and where a low-level guerilla war for independence is being fought.
The worst scenario for the PLA would be the installation of an Islamic government in Pakistan which supported and trained such guerillas and the designation of China as an "anti-Muslim" state.
Another concern is that a war in Afghanistan might give the US the opportunity to secure long-term military bases in southwest Asia, just as the Gulf War enabled it to station troops and planes in Saudi Arabia. This would mean US forces would be as close to China's southwest border as they are to the east, in bases in South Korea and Japan.
"The US Government is under strong pressure from public opinion to find the criminals," Mr Jin said. "This is understandable but, as the superpower, the US has the responsibility to protect international security. If it makes an attack, it must have the evidence. It must be legal, appropriate and reasonable. A blind decision or excess reaction could lead to a vicious circle."
Mr Jin said the US would be justified in carrying out a limited military intervention in Afghanistan. "If they make an air attack or send in [special forces] . . . it will not have a big impact on the region. But if the US and Nato occupy Afghanistan in the long term, that would be terrifying. It would affect all the neighbouring countries - China and its far west, Russia and Pakistan. It would bring problems for all of them."
He believes a military response is only a small part of the fight against terrorism. "We need political co-operation and a fairer world order. Things should not be decided only on the basis of who has money," Mr Jin said. "This will increase the gap between rich and poor. Poor countries and people will be thrown off the road towards modernisation. This will cause them to despair and despair is the greenhouse for terrorism.
"The world is developing rapidly. In this process, there is bound to be a big gap between those who fail and those who succeed. One must not allow certain sectors of society to despair. This is the same in international conflicts. One must provide the defeated with a way out. This cannot be solved by one country alone. Global co-operation is needed, especially between large countries, including China."
But he did not contest the right of the US to take action against those responsible for the attacks of September 11 on New York and Washington DC, saying they were clearly the work of terrorists and must be opposed by all countries.
Mr Jin's views were echoed by two PLA officers, Wang Xiangsui and Qiao Liang, the co-authors of the book Unlimited Warfare.
In a discussion on the Sina.com Web site, Mr Qiao said the incident should cause the US to reflect on its decision to set up a national missile-defence system purely for its own security. "But a country's security cannot be built upon the foundation of others' insecurity. People do not know who the enemy is this time. This is because America has too many enemies."
Mr Qiao said US policy was indirectly responsible for the attack. "President Bush said it was a challenge to democracy and freedom. I believe this is American propaganda. We have studied terrorism. Terrorism is despair. Only when a person or organisation feels completely without hope will it take suicidal terrorist actions. Such actions are not without cause and are not unilateral. This involves American policy," he said.
Mark O'Neill is a member of the Post's Beijing bureau.
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