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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: Irene Lynn who wrote (40653)	9/23/2001 9:08:58 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) of 50167

hi Irene, a stock pal of mine on another bulletin board gave me a link to your post. 2006, 2007, 2008. I've seen all 3 years used. There are lots of articles on 60 year cycles (3 generations) that explain the mega-economic principles behind the economy from the Great Depression until now. My theory is 2006 is when the first Baby Boomers turn 60. If you think of the stock market as simply a place that money flows into (stocks go up) and money flows out of (stocks go down), then it's understandable that when Baby Boomers start turning 60, they need to re-adjust their portfolios to preserve capital and become more income generating. This outflow activity will dominate Gen-X and Gen-Y inflows and at best cause the markets to tread water -- for 10 to 12 years -- until Gen-X plus Gen-Y desire to save for retirement causes net inflow into the markets. Obvisously that's not the only factor influencing the markets, but don't underestimate it. Hope that helps, Chris

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